Wildflyer  ·  Fire season tracker, France  ·  14 May 2026
Today
21.3Moderate
2nd worst of 10 years on this date
Forecast peak · next 2 weeks
33.1High
ECMWF IFS HRES
Worst-case peak · next 2 weeks
48.7Very high
ENS p90 (10% of members exceed)
Marseille, France · 14 May 2026FWI today 21.3020406080100LowModerateHighVery highExtremeJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDectoday2017–2025 (full · trimmed)2026 to dateHRES forecastENS ensemble (p30–p70 · p10–p90)
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Fire Weather Index classes shown are the EFFIS scheme: low, moderate, high, very high, extreme. FWI measures how readily fire would spread today given recent weather — not whether a fire will start. The 15-day forecast uses ECMWF IFS HRES (deterministic, 0.25°) and IFS ENS (51-member ensemble, 0.25°). Historical reanalysis from ECMWF IFS via Open‑Meteo. FWI computed from daily aggregates (afternoon max temperature, min relative humidity, max wind, 24h precipitation); values track the operational FWI pattern but may run slightly hot vs the noon-LST reference. Updated daily. Wildflyer, 2026.